GSMA forecasts 2.4 billion 6G connections by 2035 as 5G remains dominant

Sixth-generation mobile networks are projected to grow from a relatively small global footprint at the start of the 2030s to about 2.4 billion connections by 2035, according to the latest forecast from GSMA Intelligence. The projection shows that 6G adoption is expected to accelerate after its initial commercial phase, while 5G continues to account for most mobile connections worldwide.

GSMA Intelligence expects around 50 million 6G connections by the end of 2030, equivalent to about 0.5 per cent of the global mobile connection base. The figure is forecast to increase to roughly 275 million in 2031 and nearly 740 million in 2032. The technology is then expected to move beyond one billion connections during 2033, ending that year at about 1.3 billion before reaching 1.9 billion in 2034 and 2.4 billion the following year.

Despite that growth, the forecast does not point to 6G quickly replacing existing networks. By the end of 2035, GSMA Intelligence expects 5G to represent about 60 per cent of worldwide mobile connections. About 23 per cent are projected to be on 6G, while 4G is expected to account for the remaining 17 per cent. This means several generations of mobile technology are likely to operate side by side during the first half of the 2030s.

The transition is also expected to vary widely by region. GSMA Intelligence projects earlier adoption in technologically advanced markets across East Asia, North America and parts of Europe. China is expected to play a major role because of the size of its mobile market, with more than half of its connections forecast to use 6G by 2035. North America is also projected to reach roughly half of connections on 6G, while Europe is expected to have about a quarter of connections using the technology. Several emerging-market regions are forecast to remain below 10 per cent penetration by that point.

Nigeria's current mobile technology mix illustrates how uneven that transition could be. Nigerian Communications Commission figures cited in the report show that 4G accounted for 54.31 per cent of subscriptions in July 2026, while 5G represented 4.74 per cent. Older technologies remained significant, with 2G at 36.54 per cent and 3G at 4.42 per cent.

The forecast also points to sharply rising pressure on mobile networks. Global mobile data traffic is expected to rise from about 144 exabytes per month in 2025 to 604 exabytes per month in 2035. GSMA Intelligence expects average annual traffic growth of roughly 15 per cent over the period, supported by video consumption as well as growing use of artificial intelligence, extended reality and fixed wireless access.

As devices increasingly create and upload data through cameras, sensors, AI applications and immersive technologies, network requirements are also expected to change. The GSMA estimates that densely populated countries could need between 2 and 2.5GHz of mid-band spectrum during the 2035 to 2040 period. Most countries currently have about 1GHz identified for mobile services, meaning additional spectrum, improved efficiency and denser network deployment may be required as traffic grows.